Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models

loss of Arctic sea ice, and changes in ocean currents. The EaSM funding opportunity enables interagency cooperation on one of the most pressing problems of the millennium: climate change, how it is likely to affect our world, and how we can plan for its consequences. It allows the partner agencies -- National Science Foundation (NSF), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) -- to combine resources to identify and fund the most meritorious and highest-impact projects that support their respective missions, while eliminating duplication of effort and fostering collaboration between agencies and the investigators they support.This interdisciplinary scientific challenge calls for the development and application of next-generation Earth System Models that include coupled and interactive representations of such things as ocean and atmospheric currents, human activities, agricultural working lands and forests, urban environments, biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry, the water cycle and land ice. This solicitation seeks to attract scientists from the disciplines of geosciences, social sciences, agricultural and biological sciences, mathematics and statistics, physics, and chemistry. Successful proposals will develop intellectual excitement in the participating disciplinary communities and engage diverse interdisciplinary teams with sufficient breadth to achieve the scientific objectives. We encourage proposals that have strong broader impacts, including public access to data and other research products of general interest, as well as educational, diversity, or societal impacts.The long-term goals of this solicitation are to improve on and extend current Earth System modeling capabilities to: Achieve comprehensive, reliable global and regional predictions of decadal climate variability and change through advanced understanding of the coupled interactive physical, chemical, biological, and human processes that drive the climate system.Quantify the impacts of climate variability and change on natural and human systems, and identify and quantify feedback loops.Maximize the utility of available observational and model data for impact, vulnerability/resilience, and risk assessments through up/downscaling activities and uncertainty characterization.Effectively translate climate predictions and associated uncertainties into the scientific basis for policy and management decisions related to human interventions and adaptation to the projected impacts of climate change.The following are specific areas of interest to the funding agencies for EaSM 2: (i) Research that has the potential to dramatically improve predictive capabilities; (ii) Prediction and attribution studies; (iii) Research that addresses critical issues linking relevant Earth system processes over a variety of spatial and temporal scales; (iv) Research that examines the relationships between climate variability and change to human and natural environments from the human perspective; (v) Development and applications of metrics, methods, and tools for testing and evaluating climate and climate impact predictions and their uncertainty characterization. These subareas of particular interest are described in greater detail below under Program Description: Areas of interest.